Dry spell sans major rainfall likely for Telangana till mid-July

There was relief when the summer was cut short and the rains came in early in May. But, the prolonged dry weather with intermittent rainfall for the last few weeks does not portend well with meteorologists stating these conditions could extend well up to mid-July.

“The monsoon has moved towards north, northeast, central and western India. Heavy rainfall is being reported in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, western Uttar Pradesh, Konkan, Goa and other regions. Usually the monsoon returns, but the gap has become wider this year,” informed Telangana Government Development Planning Society (TGDPS) senior weather consultant Y.V. Rama Rao.

With the Bay of Bengal too not showing any signs of any major low pressure or depressions forming that could move towards Andhra Pradesh or Odisha to bring back the rains, further progress of the Southwest Monsoon this year will be known post July 15.

“There is no positive signal of the rains returning for the next three weeks at least. This year, we had an early monsoon onset in May itself followed by rains for a few days and after that the rainfall has been sporadic,” he pointed out.

Already, June is showing a deficit of minus 42% having received 9.7 cm when it is supposed to get about 13 cm. The shortfall of 5.6 cm is unlikely to be bridged because of the current weak monsoon activity which seems to have enveloped the entire southern peninsula.

Though a low pressure has been detected in the Bay of Bengal, it is more likely to move towards North Odisha and West Bengal. “We normally witness a couple of low pressures or depressions forming during this period, but that has not happened though El Nino neutral conditions continue to be prevalent,” said Mr. Rama Rao.

The last high-deficiency year was in 2014, when only 5.4 cm of rainfall was received. Less than normal rainfall during in June has also been recorded in 2019-29 of 8.5 cm and 23-24 of 7.3 cm. All eyes are now on July which is the month where Telangana is supposed to receive the highest rainfall for the monsoon of about 22.7 cm. Meteorologists and policy makers are hoping there will be a change in the weather so that the rains return.

Saving grace is that heavy rains in Maharashtra indicate that the inflows to Krishna and Godavari rivers could be substantial though 26 of the 33 districts have recorded deficient rainfall so far.

The senior meteorologist says that maximum and minimum temperatures are pretty normal despite the cloud cover. The temperatures are hovering around 32° Celsiu-33° Celsius in the capital region and 37° Celsius-38° Celsius in the districts during the day. At nights, these are about 20° Celsius-22° Celsius in the city and 22° Celsius-24° Celsius in the hinterlands.